Real Madrid vs Liverpool prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League second leg

Jurgen Klopp, with one recent Champions League comeback already under their belt, looks to engineer another as Liverpool venture to the Santiago Bernabeu to take on Real Madrid in the second leg of their Round of 16 matchup.

The Reds engineered a famous turnaround at Anfield against Barcelona in 2019, turning a 3-0 deficit on its head in a 4-0 home victory that went down in the record books as one of the most memorable results in the competition’s history.

This time, however, they’ll be on the road in the second leg, needing to somehow generate that same juju as Liverpool face a 5-2 aggregate deficit to Los Blancos. While Liverpool led 2-0 early in the first leg, they collapsed in epic fashion, conceding five straight goals to the visitors.

It’s hard to imagine Klopp catching Carlo Ancelotti, one of the game’s most legendary managers, napping in this match the way he did to Barcelona a few years back, but that’s why they play the games.

MORE: When is Real Madrid vs Barcelona? El Clasico to resume this weekend

Real Madrid vs Liverpool odds

While Real Madrid, understandably, are massive favourites to advance to the quarterfinals thanks to their three-goal aggregate lead, the individual game moneyline sees this as almost dead even.

Both teams sport plus odds at under 2/1, meaning the betting market gives Liverpool a great chance to win the game at the Bernabeu, even if they can’t turn around the aggregate score to advance.

This is likely down to the understanding that Liverpool will come out swinging, in the hopes of turning the aggregate score on its head, while Real Madrid will know they have that three-goal cushion to lean back on. With that same idea, the over is juiced way up to 3.5 total goals, and both teams are over 1/2 odds to score.

  BetMGM
(USA)
Sports
Interaction

(Canada)
SkyBet
(UK)
Neds
(Australia)
Dafabet
(India)
Real Madrid win +130 +114 6/5 2.35 2.39
Draw +310 +282 3/1 3.60 3.85
Liverpool win +160 +184 9/5 2.80 2.86
Both teams
to score Y / N
-210 / +150 -234 / +145 1/2, 6/4 1.44 / 2.60 1.49 / 2.65
Over / Under
3.5 goals
+120 / -165 +125 / -167 11/8, 8/15 2.35 / 1.55 2.47 / 1.56
RMFC advance -5000 1/80 1.01
LFC advance +1250 16/1 17.00

Real Madrid vs Liverpool: 3 things to know

Real Madrid vs Liverpool match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, March 15
  • Kickoff Time: 4:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm GMT / 7:00 am AEDT (Thu, Mar. 16)
  • Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
  • Official: Felix Zwayer (GER)
  • First leg: Liverpool 2-5 Real Madrid (Feb. 21, 2023)

Real Madrid vs Liverpool lineups

French striker Karim Benzema returns to the fold for the second leg despite initial fears that he might miss out through injury.

Nacho Fernandez gets the nod at left-back, with Fede Valverde pushed into attack as Eduardo Camavinga starts in central midfield.

Real Madrid (4-3-3): Courtois (GK) — Carvajal, Militao, Rudiger, Nacho — Camavinga, Kroos, Modric — Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius Jr

Subs: Lunin, Vallejo, Hazard, Asensio, Odriozola, Lucas Vazquez, Tchouameni, Ceballos, Rodrygo, Mendy, Mariano, Alvaro

Liverpool’s injury picture worsened this week as it emerged Jordan Henderson and Stefan Bajcetic would be unavailable for the match in Spain.

Consequently, Jurgen Klopp has selected just two orthodox midfielders in James Milner and Fabinho, with Darwin NunezCody GakpoMohamed Salah and Diogo Jota forming a four-man attack.

Joe Gomez returned to training on Tuesday but is not likely to be rushed back into action, while Klopp is potentially struggling for options in midfield.

Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson (GK) — Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson — Fabinho, Milner — Salah, Gakpo, Nunez — Jota

Subs: Adrian, Kelleher, Gomez, Keita, Firmino, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Jones, Elliott, Tsimikas, Carvalho, Matip, Williams

MORE: Updated Premier League table with title, Champions League, and relegation race breakdowns

Real Madrid vs Liverpool key stats

  • Liverpool have not beaten Real Madrid since March 2009, a run of seven straight winless matches against the Spanish side, outscored 16-4 in that span.
  • Karim Benzema scored in seven of the first 10 matches he has played in 2023 across all competitions, but has not scored in three starts since his brace against Liverpool three weeks ago.
  • Champions League participants have turned around a three or more goal differential four times previously, including the famous Liverpool comeback at Anfield against Barcelona in 2019. However, it has never happened with a second leg on the road, as all four previous comebacks were completed at home.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+310)
  • Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Liverpool

While Liverpool will go for a famous turnaround, there’s no real indication that they can pour goals on this Real Madrid back line, which has improved over the season and plays a bend-don’t-break style when under pressure.

It’s hard to see this inconsistent Reds side being able to really trouble Madrid throughout the 90 minutes with enough of a tidal wave to really make this troublesome.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool: best bet

Both historically and on recent trends, there’s very little to suggest that this match will reach the goal scoring threshold that the betting market has laid out for it.

You only need to go back two years to see Liverpool faced this same situation against the same opponent and came up well short, trailing 3-1 to Real Madrid on aggregate after the first leg, but playing to a 0-0 draw at home in the second leg where they put up just 1.23 xG, well short of the necessary output to turn around even a two-goal deficit.

While the first leg featured loads of goals, once Liverpool fell behind by a large margin, they were powerless to turn things around. The Reds put up 1.90 xG in the first half of the match at Anfield two weeks ago, but once Madrid took control, they managed just two shots worth a combined 0.07 xG in the entire second half.

Add in that Liverpool have failed to score in two straight road matches in Premier League play, against Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, of all teams, and this match presents a prime opportunity to take advantage of the inflated value in this case. Expect this game to fall short of expectations from an excitement standpoint.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool prop bet

  • Pick: Mohamed Salah 2+ shots on target
  • Odds: +165 (FanDuel)
  • Pick: Darwin Nunez 2+ shots on target
  • Odds: +160 (FanDuel)

Liverpool should control the attacking impetus for most of the game, at least early as they look to spark a memorable comeback. Mohamed Salah has had an inconsistent season from a finishing perspective, but he’s been heavily involved in the attack all year, and especially so in recent weeks.

Salah has ripped off multiple shots in seven straight Premier League games, and he did in the first leg of this matchup as well. His on-target accuracy hasn’t been exceptional, but there’s reason to believe he will look to trouble Thibaut Courtois in this game and should find the space to do so.

Additionally, Darwin Nunez is a shot machine, and while his accuracy this season also leaves something to be desired, he is often a great bet to get happy feet in the penalty area. Between the two picks with solid value, at least one of these should come through, which would be a profitable venture, while both hitting would be ideal.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with fuboTV in USA

  TV channel Streaming
USA TUDN, Univision fuboTV, Paramount+
Canada DAZN
UK BT Sport 1 BT Sport
Australia Stan Sport
New Zealand Spark Sport
India Sony LIV, JioTV
Hong Kong beIN Sports Connect
Malaysia beIN Sports 3 beIN Sports Connect, sooka
Singapore beIN Sports 3 beIN Sports Connect, StarHub TV+

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