Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew started the week with a winner and has four Thursday picks for March 16th, including two at big prices at the Cheltenham festival. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
FOXY GIRL (system – Cheltenham festival hurdles, won easily in Ireland last time out)
Since 2011, backing all Cheltenham festival hurdles who won ‘easily’ or ‘comfortably’ in Ireland las time out would have found 25 winners from 106 bets for a profit of £46.29 to a £1 level stake at SP. FOXY GIRL only won a maiden hurdle on her latest start but Henry De Bromhead’s five-year-old is second only to Luccia on Racing Post Ratings in the Grade 2 Jack De Bromhead Mare’s Hurdle and could outrun odds of around 16-1.
KILDRUM (system – Micky Hammond/Emma Smith-Chaston combination)
Emma Smith-Chaston has a fine record when riding for her boss Micky Hammond, scoring on 36 of her 211 mounts (17.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £68.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 22.56). Mister Bells was a winner for the column on this angle at Market Rasen last week and perhaps KILDRUM can follow suit. His two previous chase runs here produced a 5-1 and a 16-1 third of 11.
BRISTOL HILL (system – New Bay handicappers, top-three last time out)
Progeny of the sire New Bay have a fantastic record when running in handicap company on the back of a top-three finish, landing no less than 63 of their 183 starts (34.4%) for a profit of £110.99 to a £1 level stake at SP. Easy Newcastle scorer BRISTOL HILL is taken to follow up in this apprentice handicap.
DEFI BLEU (system – Kim Muir, 7-10yos, recent run)
In the past ten renewals of the Kim Muir, had we bet all the runners aged between seven and ten who’d raced within the past four weeks we’d have hit the winner on six occasions (from 54 bets) and made a profit of £65.50. Those officially rated at least 134 were six from 41 for a profit of £80.50. Gordon Elliott’s DEFI BLEU, around 50-1 at the time of writing, arrives here on the back of a solid 25-1 third at Punchestown and could surprise.
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