Global climate goals within reach thanks to accelerated transition to clean technologies, energy modeller forecasts

One of the world’s foremost energy modellers has forecast that temperature rises are set to be kept within 2 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels thanks to the rapidly advancing efficiency and affordability of clean technologies. 

Rystad Energy, a Norway-based firm, has released a report casting an upbeat light on the world’s progress towards decarbonisation, despite continuing increases in global emissions.

In the report, Rystad said disruptive technologies led by solar power were being developed at a pace that would “outcompete fossil fuels sufficiently fast to limit … emissions” and temperature rises.

Jarand Rystad, the company’s chief executive, said temperatures were set to increase between 1.6C and 1.9C under those scenarios.

“In addition, new technologies for methane emission reduction are coming, representing an upside of up to 0.2 degree of avoided global warming,” Mr Rystad said.

“Thus, the 1.5-degree target is within reach.”

Solar power has been the runaway success of the energy transition to date.(ABC News: Michael Franchi)

The forecasts come ahead of the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai, where countries will try to thrash out ways of boosting efforts to limit global warming.

They also come as federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen redoubles the Albanese government’s commitment to its signature 82 per cent renewable energy target.

Solar ‘cheapest energy in history’

According to Rystad, a dozen technologies will collectively be the key to capping emissions by 2027 and then reducing them to ensure temperature rises are kept in check.

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