Chiefs vs. Packers odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 175-126 run

For the first time since 2021, the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers will meet on Sunday Night Football. The two traditional powers square off at Lambeau Field as the finale of an 11-game NFL schedule on Sunday. Kansas City is 8-3 overall, entering the week as the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That includes a 4-1 mark on the road, and the Chiefs are facing a Packers team that is 5-6 overall and 3-2 at home this season.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in Green Bay. The Chiefs are five-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 43 in the latest Chiefs vs. Packers odds. Before you make any Packers vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 22-8 straight-up the last two weeks.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Packers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Packers:

  • Chiefs vs. Packers spread: Chiefs -5
  • Chiefs vs. Packers over/under: 43 points
  • Chiefs vs. Packers money line: Chiefs -242, Packers +197
  • KC: Chiefs are 7-4 against the spread this season
  • GB: Packers are 6-5 against the spread this season
  • Chiefs vs. Packers picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Chiefs vs. Packers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Chiefs can cover

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have the third-most touchdowns (51) between a quarterback and tight end in NFL history. Mahomes is a two-time NFL MVP who owns a career 20-4 record against NFC opponents. In those 24 games, he has 60 touchdown passes and is in the top five in passing touchdowns (21), total offense (3,117 yards), completions (280), and QBR (70.3). He is also No. 1 in the league in sack rate (3.29%).

Despite missing time with injury, Kelce is No. 2 in the NFL with 70 receptions, 732 yards, and five touchdowns and leads the league among tight ends with 73.2 receiving yards per game. Kelce is the fourth tight end in NFL history to reach 11,000 career yards, becoming the fastest ever to do so, and is an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Kelce has seven straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, and is No. 1 all-time among tight ends in career receiving yards per game (71.9). See which team to pick here.

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay’s defense has been frisky this season, and that is especially true in recent days. The Packers are in the top 10 of the NFL in allowing only 20.4 points per game, and Green Bay is allowing only 18.3 points per game in the last seven matchups. Green Bay is in the top 10 of the league in passing yards allowed (2,256), and the Packers are in the top eight of the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed (12) and red zone efficiency allowed (48.6%). 

Kansas City has its worst offensive numbers for the franchise since 2018, including the lowest marks in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, and third down efficiency. The Chiefs also have 19 turnovers and below-average marks in rushing yards (106.5 per game) and yards per carry (4.2). On offense, no team has fewer fumbles lost (two) than Green Bay, and the Packers are in the top quartile of the league in turnover avoidance (12) and third down efficiency (43.6%). See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Packers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the total, with neither quarterback projected to throw multiple touchdown passes. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Packers vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 175-126 roll on NFL picks, and find out.

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