4/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Guineas day

Group l racing returns to Flemington this Saturday where it is Australian Guineas Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:35) Furphy Trophy 1000m

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Back Me

I like 4 Massira (Bet Now: $2.50) here in the opener. James Cummings trained colt that is on debut and he has looked impressive in a couple of jumpouts here, the latest seeing him win and the way he dropped gears and dashed when asked was very sharp work. Has the gate to follow the rail, guide him, and with change up speed, he’ll take beating in a competitive race.

Danger

3 Butch Cassidy (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a pretty solid colt for GaiBott that is on debut. He’s had two trials in Sydney to get ready for start one, winning them both. First trial was over 740m before going to 1045m when winning narrowly but did it with a bit of style I thought and the stable are having a very good run with their juveniles. One of the hardest to beat I’d suggest.

Long Shot

7 Princess Duhallow (Bet Now: $8.50) will jump on the bunny and give a sight. She resumed in the Talindert a fortnight back here where she produced good early dash, attempting to lead throughout and giving a sight but couldn’t quite finish it off, tiring to run fourth, but another 50m, she was near last. She really got the staggers, so back in depth and back to 1000m, she’ll look the winner for a fair chunk.

Race 2. (13:10) Lexus Melb Cup Tour Tender Hcp 2500m

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Back Me

5 Timour (Bet Now: $2.80) is flying I think for Chris Waller and with a half positive ride, gee I think he’ll take beating. J Mac rode him very cold here two weeks ago over 2000m and while he was never a winning threat, I really liked the way he finished his race off late in the piece when fourth to Nobel Heights, a most consistent animal. He’ll love getting to 2500m, upside…just hoping for a positive steer.

Danger

4 So Unusual (Bet Now: $3.30) commands respect. Team McEvoy has this galloper flying at the moment, being three weeks between runs since a strong win over 2400m at Sandown where the race turned into a staying contest and he finished best to win impressively. He’s done little wrong in a seven start career and despite going to open company here, confident he can measure up.

Long Shot

6 Taramansour (Bet Now: $19.00) was scratched from a much easier race at Murray Bridge in preference for this. He is five weeks between runs since racing over 2400m on the Parks track at Morphettville and was good from off the speed, but was no match for Darlamax, who got control on speed and was too good. Doubt he wins, but can fill a first four spot.

Race 3. (13:45) Carm Trophy 1000m

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Back Me

Happy to be with 3 On The Lead (Bet Now: $3.80), who has been kept on ice for Team Freedman, having not raced since Australia Day when a strong second in the Adams behind a class sprinter, Star Patrol. Tick over trial back home in Sydney behind Mazu was good and the two big ticks for him are fast run 1000m and a dry track. Gets those, plus B Shinn.

Danger

8 Tycoon Humma (Bet Now: $18.00) has run well down the straight previously and seems to react big time with fresh legs. She resumed at Sandown four weeks ago, sitting back off the speed before being presented clear air and she let down with real purpose late, drawing clear to win impressively. Fresh legs with the rise in depth and has won down the straight before. Think she is one to be respected.

Long Shot

1 Oxley Road… (Bet Now: $14.00) is he gone? Potentially, but he drops back to this grade, so this is D-Day. Rewind 12 months, he placed in the Oakleigh Plate. But now, he looks cast. Led and folded in the Rubiton three weeks back when first up. His best likely sees him win the race. Just haven’t seen that for a while, so I think watch the market and see what it does.

Race 4. (14:20) Vrc Life Member J Ford Sprint 1000m

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Back Me

3 Ojai (Bet Now: $6.50) appeals. James Cummings trained filly that resumed in the Kevin Hayes where she got a fair way back in the run and while she was never a threat, I liked the way she finished the race off late in the piece, finishing a close up fourth to Rich Fortune. Fast run 1000m looks ideal and she is proven down the straight so she has a bit in her corner to prove to be a leading contender.

Danger

1 Lady Laguna (Bet Now: $12.00) is a quality filly that resumes for Annabel Neasham. She hasn’t raced since Oaks Day down the straight here when far from disgraced in defeat, close up behind Aitch Two Oh. To me, they have waited patiently for her return and with a couple of sharp trials under the belt, with class, she rates highly against these.

Long Shot

4 Wild Belle (Bet Now: $3.10) has great early toe and that is ideal for the Flemington 1000m. She resumed four weeks back over 1100m at Ascot where she produced sustained speed from the front, giving nothing else a look in and spanking her rivals in fast time. Stable are astute and are good at placing their runners to advantage, so I think she commands respect against these.

Race 5. (15:00) The Schweppes Plate (Bm84) 1600m

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Back Me

8 Kettle Hill (Bet Now: $3.80) sort of reminds me of Espiona. Super run at Melbourne, then goes to Sydney and just isn’t the same horse. He was outstanding at his Australian debut at Sandown before three runs at Randwick where he has been a bit on the plain side. I am hoping returning to Melbourne can be a similar winning path to that of Espiona last Saturday because off the first up run, he’ll go close against these.

Danger

4 Munhamek (Bet Now: $4.00) is getting into a nasty habit of missing the kick and while he has been up forever, he is flying. He ran two weeks ago in The Elms and he should have run a clear second to Scallopini. Tardy away and held up late, but was good when eventually clear. If he jumps clean, he will lob into a lovely spot and is one of the main chances.

Long Shot

9 Sparkle (Bet Now: $7.00) can be an improver at odds. Former Japanese mare that made her Australian debut over 1400m at Sandown when wide no cover on speed for the trip and that hard run just told late in the piece, finishing down the track behind Here To Shock. Should get a more economical run in transit this time around and has good upside compared to most.

Race 6. (15:40) Inglis Sprint 1200m

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Back Me

Seriously…waddle your finger and hope for the best here. 15 Opal Ridge (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is a quality filly for Luke Pepper that resumes. She had a fab Spring prep, which ended with a spank job win in the Tapp-Craig, beating Pericles. Loved the way she went in a recent Scone trial and did beat Akasawa, who was a sharp winner on Sunday, so the form reads well, she gets B Shinn, parks off the speed, hard to beat.

Danger

7 Insurrection (Bet Now: $9.50) is one of the main contenders. Michael Freedman trained three year old that has had two runs back from a spell. Landed big bets when an all the way winner fresh on the Kenso track before going to Rosehill where he was near the speed throughout and battled away strongly in defeat when second to Parisal, where he had his chance but battled away strongly. Third up, hard fit and seems a short course animal so he’s suited here.

Long Shot

17 Cythera (Bet Now: $8.00) will be near the speed and take running down. She was near 12 months between runs when resuming three weeks ago in the Kevin Hayes when near the speed throughout and battled on really well in defeat, just failing to finish it off when a close up third to Rich Fortune, who ran well last Saturday in the Zeditave. Better for the run, she’ll take beating.

Race 7. (16:20) Australian Guineas 1600m

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Back Me

15 Legarto (Bet Now: $7.00) is a star filly from NZ and I am really confident she can measure up down under. She hasn’t raced since Karaka Day at Pukekohe in NZ and really, it was an all time slaughter by Ryan Elliot, who has ridden her super previously but that race, he gave her none. Gets an in form Mick Dee aboard, she’ll be strong late and has electric change up speed, plus with the weight pull…she only runs well.

Danger

1 Jacquinot (Bet Now: $2.70) is a star colt. Class got him home fresh in the Manfred before getting the CF Orr win via the Stewards Room. Was he lucky to get it? IMO, yes, but the record says he beat the older horses at WFA and stamped himself a high class animal. Back to his own age, a Grand Final for him, he has the runs on the board and appeals as one of the leading chances.

Long Shot

14 Attrition (Bet Now: $7.00) is a very smart three year old for Mitch Freedman. He has been excellent this time in, winning his first two starts for the prep with ease before going to the CS Hayes where not much went his way in the straight and could make a case to say that with clear air, he goes close to beating Eliptical. He has the engine under the hood to measure up. Just needs room to move.

Race 8. (17:00) Blamey Stakes 1600m

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Back Me

4 Gentleman Roy (Bet Now: $2.90) is flying for Team Hayes. I thought he should have kept the CF Orr instead of losing it on protest to Jacquinot at Sandown three weeks ago. He led throughout and yes, he wandered around under pressure, but he was strong late to fend them off. He’ll lead/sit outside leader and that racing pattern is perfect for Flemington races at 1600m+ given they can sit/sprint.

Danger

7 Uncle Bryn (Bet Now: $6.50) deserves another chance. Busuttin/Young trained gelding that was kept very safe in betting when resuming a fortnight back over 1400m here where he got a fair way back in the run and was good to the line late in the piece without threatening behind impressive winner Scallopini. Fitter and up to the mile, with a touch of class/quality, he appeals big time.

Long Shot

5 Bankers Choice (Bet Now: $21.00) might want one more but he will appreciate getting to 1600m. He resumed over 1400m two weeks back here where he did no work in the run from the inside gate and battled to the line well enough in defeat, beaten three lengths by Scallopini. Might want one more, but he’s a borderline Group l talent at his best, so don’t dismiss him.

Race 9. (17:40) Resimax Group Plate (Bm90) 1200m

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Back Me

1 Pinstriped (Bet Now: $3.70) is the best horse in the race, and it’s just a matter of where he is at. He hasn’t raced since the Golden Eagle where nothing went right for him, finishing down the track behind I Wish I Win, which is A1 form. He’s jumped out well leading in, and with the 3kg claim, given his form, he looks absolutely thrown in. He’s the way to go in the get out.

Danger

4 It’sourtime (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Danny O’Brien trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since September 17 at Caulfield when unlucky, again. Got held up at the wrong time before getting clear and finding the line strongly when second to Ingratiating. Good fresh horse who loves the straight track and has jumped out well leading in. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

8 Florescent Star (Bet Now: $6.00) has a good record down the straight and I think has returned in solid order. She resumed in a 955m at The Valley where she got back to near last but balanced up late and was going to be in the finish but couldn’t get the clearest of paths behind Unflinching. Proven down the straight and has good upside to come. One for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Timour

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 15 Legarto

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 Kettle Hill

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 7, 15, 17, 18

Leg Two: 1, 15

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7

Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 10

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